Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for Small Area Means from Unit-Level Nonlinear Models

Abstract

Abstract For analyses based on nonlinear models, agencies and policy makers are often interested in prediction intervals for small area means. We give statistics for small area predictions that can be used to construct prediction intervals in the same way that standard errors and degrees of freedom are used to construct prediction intervals based on the Student-t distribution. In a simulation study, the new parametric bootstrap prediction interval has good coverage properties and much better coverage than the bootstrap percentile prediction interval. The methods are applied in a study of soil erosion and water runoff conducted by the US Department of Agriculture.