Effectiveness of Paxlovid in Reducing Severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 and Mortality in High-Risk Patients

Abstract

Abstract Background Paxlovid was granted an Emergency Use Authorization for the treatment of mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), based on the interim analysis of the Evaluation of Protease Inhibition for COVID-19 in High-Risk Patients (EPIC-HR) trial. Paxlovid effectiveness needs to be assessed in a noncontrolled setting. In this study we used population-based real-world data to evaluate the effectiveness of Paxlovid. Methods The database of the largest healthcare provider in Israel was used to identify all adults aged 18 years or older with first-ever positive test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 between January and February 2022, who were at high risk for severe COVID-19 and had no contraindications for Paxlovid use. Patients were included irrespective of their COVID-19 vaccination status. Cox hazard regression was used to estimate the 28-day hazard ratio (HR) for severe COVID-19 or mortality with Paxlovid examined as time-dependent variable. Results Overall, 180 351 eligible patients were included; of these, only 4737 (2.6%) were treated with Paxlovid, and 135 482 (75.1%) had adequate COVID-19 vaccination status. Both Paxlovid and adequate COVID-19 vaccination status were associated with significant decrease in the rate of severe COVID-19 or mortality with adjusted HRs of 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI], .39–.75) and 0.20 (95% CI, .17–.22), respectively. Paxlovid appears to be more effective in older patients, immunosuppressed patients, and patients with underlying neurological or cardiovascular disease (interaction P < .05 for all). No significant interaction was detected between Paxlovid treatment and COVID-19 vaccination status. Conclusions This study suggests that in the era of Omicron and in real-life settings, Paxlovid is highly effective in reducing the risk of severe COVID-19 or mortality.