Affiliation:
1. Department of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, the Netherlands
Abstract
Abstract
This article studies the dynamic impact of a temporary policy restricting social encounters due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on criminal activity in Bihar, India. Using a regression discontinuity design in time and criminal case—level and arrest data, I document an immediate drop in crime of over 35% due to the lockdown. Analysis over a longer timespan shows asymmetric dynamics by crime type. The lockdown was more effective in preventing personal crimes such as murders but was less effective in preventing property crimes, which increased beyond pre-lockdown levels once the lockdown was lifted. The increase in property crimes seems to be driven by temporal crime displacement from “former offenders” and not by “new offenders.” These asymmetric dynamics across crime types provide new insights into criminals’ intertemporal decisions (JEL K14, K42).
Funder
Emergent Ventures India program
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Reference53 articles.
1. Covid and Crime: An Early Empirical Look,”;Abrams;Journal of Public Economics,2021
2. The Evolution of Citizen Security in Colombia in Times of Covid-19,”;Alvarado;Available at SSRN 3946567.,2021
3. Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion,”;Anderson;American Economic Review,2014
4. How Representation Reduces Minority Criminal Victimization: Evidence from Scheduled Castes in India,”;Aneja;The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization,2022
5. Simple and Honest Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression,”;Armstrong;Quantitative Economics,2020