Affiliation:
1. MIT Sloan School of Management , USA
2. SciencesPo , France
3. London School of Economics , UK
Abstract
Abstract
We investigate whether the “one-child policy” has contributed to the rise in China’s household saving rate and human capital in recent decades. In a life-cycle model with intergenerational transfers and human capital accumulation, fertility restrictions lower expected old-age support coming from children—inducing parents to raise saving and education investment in their offspring. Quantitatively, the policy can account for at least 30% of the rise in aggregate saving. Using the birth of twins under the policy as an empirical out-of-sample check to the theory, we find that quantitative estimates on saving and education decisions line up well with micro-data.
Funder
European Research Council
SciencesPo-LSE Mobility Scheme
CEPR
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Subject
General Economics, Econometrics and Finance
Reference61 articles.
1. China’s Financial System: Growth and Risk;Allen,2015
2. Multiple Experiments for the Causal Link between the Quantity and Quality of Children;Angrist;Journal of Labor Economics,2010
3. Fertility Change and Household Savings in China: Evidence from a General Equilibrium Model and Micro Data;Banerjee,2014
4. The Life Cycle Model and Household Savings: Micro Evidence from Urban China;Banerjee,2010
5. Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth;Barro;Econometrica,1989
Cited by
14 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献