The One-Child Policy and Household Saving

Author:

Choukhmane Taha1,Coeurdacier Nicolas2,Jin Keyu3

Affiliation:

1. MIT Sloan School of Management , USA

2. SciencesPo , France

3. London School of Economics , UK

Abstract

Abstract We investigate whether the “one-child policy” has contributed to the rise in China’s household saving rate and human capital in recent decades. In a life-cycle model with intergenerational transfers and human capital accumulation, fertility restrictions lower expected old-age support coming from children—inducing parents to raise saving and education investment in their offspring. Quantitatively, the policy can account for at least 30% of the rise in aggregate saving. Using the birth of twins under the policy as an empirical out-of-sample check to the theory, we find that quantitative estimates on saving and education decisions line up well with micro-data.

Funder

European Research Council

SciencesPo-LSE Mobility Scheme

CEPR

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Reference61 articles.

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3. Fertility Change and Household Savings in China: Evidence from a General Equilibrium Model and Micro Data;Banerjee,2014

4. The Life Cycle Model and Household Savings: Micro Evidence from Urban China;Banerjee,2010

5. Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth;Barro;Econometrica,1989

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