Measuring the Extent to Which Voter Fraud Beliefs Link Election Reforms to Voter Confidence in the United States

Abstract

Abstract Proponents of restrictive voting policies argue that they are necessary to reduce fraud beliefs and instill confidence in elections. However, recent scholarship examining this dynamic in the United States finds that the effects of voting restrictions on fraud beliefs and voter confidence differ by party, suggesting the extent to which fraud beliefs undergird this relationship may also differ by party. Whether voter fraud beliefs tie voter restrictions to voter confidence is inherently important given the assumed role of voter fraud beliefs and voter restrictions in increasing voter confidence, an issue well highlighted in the 2020 election. This study contributes to this literature by measuring the extent to which voter fraud beliefs undergird the relationship between restrictive election policies and voter confidence among Republicans and Democrats. Findings suggest that voter fraud beliefs play a significant and substantive mediating role for Republicans but not Democrats, in line with prominent theories arguing that partisan elite signaling colors electoral reform perceptions.