Development of a Clinical Prediction Score Including Monocyte-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Inform Tuberculosis Treatment Among Children With HIV: A Multicountry Study

Abstract

Abstract Background Clinical pediatric tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis may lead to overdiagnosis particularly among children with human immunodeficiency virus (CHIV). We assessed the performance of monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) as a diagnostic biomarker and constructed a clinical prediction score to improve specificity of TB diagnosis in CHIV with limited access to microbiologic testing. Methods We pooled data from cohorts of children aged ≤13 years from Vietnam, Cameroon, and South Africa to validate the use of MLR ≥0.378, previously found as a TB diagnostic marker among CHIV. Using multivariable logistic regression, we created an internally validated prediction score for diagnosis of TB disease in CHIV. Results The combined cohort had 601 children (median age, 1.9 [interquartile range, 0.9–5.3] years); 300 (50%) children were male, and 283 (47%) had HIV. Elevated MLR ≥0.378 had sensitivity of 36% (95% confidence interval [CI], 23%–51%) and specificity of 79% (95% CI, 71%–86%) among CHIV in the validation cohort. A model using MLR ≥0.28, age ≥4 years, tuberculin skin testing ≥5 mm, TB contact history, fever >2 weeks, and chest radiograph suggestive of TB predicted active TB disease in CHIV with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85. A prediction score of ≥5 points had a sensitivity of 94% and specificity of 48% to identify confirmed TB, and a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 48% to identify confirmed and unconfirmed TB groups combined. Conclusions Our score has comparable sensitivity and specificity to algorithms including microbiological testing and should enable clinicians to rapidly initiate TB treatment among CHIV when microbiological testing is unavailable.