The Effect of Age on Dengue Presentation and the Diagnostic Accuracy of the 2015 Pan American Health Organization Case Criteria in a Puerto Rican Cohort

Abstract

Abstract Background We evaluated dengue presentation by age, the performance of the 2015 Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) case criteria in identifying dengue cases, and variables to improve specificity. Methods Patients with fever ≤7 days (N = 10 408) were recruited from 2 emergency departments from May 2012 through December 2015. Serum samples were tested for dengue, chikungunya, and nasopharyngeal swabs for respiratory viruses. Smoothing splines assessed differences in the frequencies of signs/symptoms by age. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regressions identified the variables that best predicted dengue. Results Among 985 dengue cases, children aged <5 years were least likely to have leukopenia, but most likely to have rash and petechiae. Adults had the highest odds of aches/pains and headaches/retro-orbital pain. The 2015 PAHO criteria had sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 25%. Specificity could be improved by requiring at least 2 of the following criteria: vomiting/nausea, petechiae, rash, or leukopenia (specificity 68%, sensitivity 71%) or by using 2015 PAHO criteria plus either (1) aspartate aminotransferase >50 IU/L or platelet count <100 000 platelets/μL (specificity 81%, sensitivity 56%) or (2) itchy skin or absence of rhinorrhea or cough (specificity 51%, sensitivity 82%). Conclusions The 2015 PAHO dengue case criteria had excellent sensitivity but poor specificity. This can be improved by adding signs/symptoms associated with dengue diagnosis.