Approaches for predicting dairy cattle methane emissions: from traditional methods to machine learning

Abstract

Abstract Measuring dairy cattle methane (CH4) emissions using traditional recording technologies is complicated and expensive. Prediction models, which estimate CH4 emissions based on proxy information, provide an accessible alternative. This review covers the different modeling approaches taken in the prediction of dairy cattle CH4 emissions and highlights their individual strengths and limitations. Following the guidelines set out by the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA); Scopus, EBSCO, Web of Science, PubMed and PubAg were each queried for papers with titles that contained search terms related to a population of “Bovine,” exposure of “Statistical Analysis or Machine Learning,” and outcome of “Methane Emissions”. The search was executed in December 2022 with no publication date range set. Eligible papers were those that investigated the prediction of CH4 emissions in dairy cattle via statistical or machine learning (ML) methods and were available in English. 299 papers were returned from the initial search, 55 of which, were eligible for inclusion in the discussion. Data from the 55 papers was synthesized by the CH4 emission prediction approach explored, including mechanistic modeling, empirical modeling, and machine learning. Mechanistic models were found to be highly accurate, yet they require difficult-to-obtain input data, which, if imprecise, can produce misleading results. Empirical models remain more versatile by comparison, yet suffer greatly when applied outside of their original developmental range. The prediction of CH4 emissions on commercial dairy farms can utilize any approach, however, the traits they use must be procurable in a commercial farm setting. Milk fatty acids (MFA) appear to be the most popular commercially accessible trait under investigation, however, MFA-based models have produced ambivalent results and should be consolidated before robust accuracies can be achieved. ML models provide a novel methodology for the prediction of dairy cattle CH4 emissions through a diverse range of advanced algorithms, and can facilitate the combination of heterogenous data types via hybridization or stacking techniques. In addition to this, they also offer the ability to improve dataset complexity through imputation strategies. These opportunities allow ML models to address the limitations faced by traditional prediction approaches, as well as enhance prediction on commercial farms.