Effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions in reducing population mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

Abstract Nonpharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs) are intended to reduce population mobility in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. This paper evaluates their effect on population mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic. State space models are applied to estimate the time-varying effects of NPI stringency on weekly pedestrian counts from location-based sensors installed before the pandemic. Different models are developed that evaluate compliance with NPIs over time, identify the most effective NPI, and identify regional differences. An efficient parsimonious alternative is proposed for the multivariate Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Equation model if full covariance matrices are of full rank. Kalman filter estimates of the regression coefficients show that NPI stringency initially had a negative effect on population mobility. The effect weakened during the pandemic, suggesting a reduced willingness to comply with regulations. Four of nine NPIs were identified as the most effective. The multivariate model confirmed the findings across federal states. This paper highlights how combining new data sources, routinely collected administrative data, and sound methodology fosters modern policy evaluation.