Probabilistic scenario-based assessment of national food security risks with application to Egypt and Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract This study presents a novel approach to assessing food security risks at the national level, employing a probabilistic scenario-based framework that integrates both Shared Socio-economic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. This innovative method allows each scenario, encompassing socio-economic, and climate factors, to be treated as a model capable of generating diverse trajectories. This approach offers a more dynamic understanding of food security risks under varying future conditions. The paper details the methodologies employed, showcasing their applicability through a focused analysis of food security challenges in Egypt and Ethiopia, and underscores the importance of considering a spectrum of socio-economic and climatic factors in national food security assessments.