Estimating Legislators' Preferred Points

Author:

Londregan John

Abstract

This paper shows that agnostic spatial models that simultaneously attempt to estimate legislators' preferred points and ideological locations for the proposals on which they vote, such as the well-known NOMINATE model of Poole and Rosenthal, are not identified. The problem arises because the agnostic estimators inherit the granularity of the voting data and, so, cannot recapture the underlying continuous parameter space. I propose an alternative estimator that achieves identification by modeling the agenda.

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

Political Science and International Relations,Sociology and Political Science

Reference30 articles.

1. Traits versus Issues: Factor versus Ideal-Point Analysis of Candidate Thermometer Ratings

2. Those interested in seeing the methods developed here at work will find an application to the Chilean Senate given by Londregan (2000) Estimating Legislators’ Preferred Points

3. A few technical conditions are necessary: (i) the random variable ξνρ in inequality (2) can take on any value on the real line, albeit with a very low probability; (ii) there is “no guessing,” so that at very high levels of mastery the probability that the subject answers correctly converges to 1, while at abysmal levels it converges to 0; and (iii) random disturbances to the subject's response, caused by factors such as momentary distractions during the test, are uncorrelated across questions. Of these three assumptions, the second is the most problematic: we might expect low-ability subjects to guess.

4. This amounts to allowing the a parameter to differ among voters.

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