Confronting Political—Economic Theories of Voting with Evidence

Author:

Grafstein Robert,Moser Ann

Abstract

This paper illustrates one strategy for testing a theory of economic influences on voting. We use a competitive equilibrium model of the economy to determine the impact of an individual's economic position on his or her economic interests and, ultimately, political interests. We then test whether this impact is observed in voting behavior, addressing the resulting specification and estimation problems in the context of U.S. presidential election data. Our empirical results suggest that, despite these formidable problems, we can usefully connect political-economic models and discrete-choice (probit) models of voting.

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

Political Science and International Relations,Sociology and Political Science

Reference50 articles.

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4. Income is in constant chained 1982–1984 dollars by annual CPI computed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics; Growth in GDP is from the 1998 Economic Report of the President, Historical Tables; Unemployment is from the Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics Series LFS21000000; and change in real personal disposable income is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The 1948 observations are based on retrospective 1952 data (the qualitative results are the same when 1948 is excluded). The qualitative results are also the same when we correct for different size samples by election year.

5. Schorfheide Frank . 1999. “A Unified Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of DSGE Models.” Unpublished manuscript.

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