Unstable employment careers and (quasi-)completed fertility: evidence from the labour market deregulation in Italy

Abstract

Abstract Most research on the fertility consequences of labour market instability has focussed on the transition to parenthood, ignoring potential ‘catching up’ effects and, thus, the more encompassing view on cohort fertility. This work extends on this point by analysing the consequences of employment instability on (quasi-)completed fertility for men and women in Italy. From a cohort perspective, we look at fertility outcomes at age 41 among those who experienced labour market deregulation (cohorts born between 1966 and 1975) in comparison with the previous cohorts (those born between 1951 and 1965) and relate the fertility outcome to the instability of their employment histories. Based on data from a large-scale, nationally representative retrospective survey, we find that fragmented employment careers and atypical employment periods come with a lower likelihood of ever becoming a parent and a higher probability of having fewer children compared to those with continuous, stable careers. Our study suggests that the consequences of rising labour market instability not only lead to a postponement of childbearing but also lead to overall lower numbers of children, especially for men and younger cohorts. This study adds to previous research by suggesting that recuperation in employment instability-induced childbearing postponement does not take place to a sufficient extent, at least in Italy.