Predation

Abstract

AbstractChapter 18 introduces predation theory, the most recent among realist expositions on the causes of war. This theory puts forward an explanation for war that focuses on the dynamics of relative capability between and among the great powers. Predation theory assumes, with justification, that leaders rarely possess fully accurate information about the distribution of power. Policies among rising states therefore will vary by context; there is no deterministic pathway to either peace or war under conditions of strategically significant change in relative capabilities. Predation theory seeks to “understand and account for a rising state’s predatory or supportive policies toward its declining peers.” The focus is on the politics associated with power shifts. Predation theory seeks to explain the degree of conflict observed during times of significant change in relative capabilities. War becomes more likely under such circumstances.