Crime Propensity and Criminogenic Exposure

Abstract

Abstract The core proposition of Situational Action Theory (SAT)’s Developmental Ecological Action (DEA) model is that changes in people’s crime involvement are a consequence of changes in their crime propensities and criminogenic exposure. At the heart of SAT’s explanation of crime is the interaction between people with particular crime propensities and places with particular criminogenic features. Capturing and analysing this interaction and its association with crime and, further, changes in this interaction over time and its association with criminal careers, is a challenging enterprise. This chapter discusses these challenges, both conceptual and empirical, and employs a variety of analytical techniques to explore stability and change across short and long time intervals, within and between individuals (e.g. cross-sectional regression analysis, path analysis, fixed effects methods, analysis of change scores, and analysis of trajectory classes and components). Across all these different analyses, it finds robust relationships between changes in crime propensities and criminogenic exposure and changes in crime involvement, and hence consistent support for SAT’s DEA model.