How Fundamentals Shape Evaluations of Candidates and Campaigns

Abstract

Abstract This chapter looks at how respondents say they feel about their party and its candidates and the opposing party and its candidates. Partisans are no more (nor much less) happy about their own party and its candidates than they have been for decades but are much more negative about the opposition. This tendency peaked in the last two presidential elections. It has changed how the public approaches presidential campaigns even in January, as the primary season begins. It also applies to traits of the candidates. While candidates provide the dynamism of national elections and are very strongly related to the vote, they are increasingly related to the fundamentals, and the effect of the fundamentals is increasingly due to how they shape evaluations of the candidates, which in turn shape the vote. But does this mixture of substantive and emotive politics matter beyond understanding how people vote?