Chance in the World

Author:

Hoefer Carl

Abstract

This book argues that objective chance, or probability, should not be understood as a metaphysical primitive, nor as a dispositional property of certain systems (“propensity”). Given that traditional accounts of objective probability in terms of frequencies are widely agreed to be also untenable, there is a clear need for a new account that can overcome the problems of older views. A Humean, reductive analysis of objective chance is offered, one partially based on the work of David Lewis, but diverging from Lewis’ approach in many respects. It is shown that “Humean objective chances” (HOCs) can fulfill the role that chances are supposed to play of being a guide to one’s subjective expectations. In a chapter coauthored by Roman Frigg, HOC is shown to make sense of physics’ uses of objective probabilities, both in statistical mechanics and quantum mechanics. And in the final chapter, the relationship between chance and causation is analyzed; it is argued that there is no direct connection between causation and objective chance, but that, instead, causation is related to subjective probability.

Publisher

Oxford University Press

Cited by 22 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Suspension of Judgment, Non-additivity, and Additivity of Possibilities;Acta Analytica;2024-04-11

2. Beyond Chance and Credence;Philosophical Review;2024-01-01

3. Foundations of Statistical Mechanics;2023-12-12

4. Reactivity in chemistry: the propensity view;Foundations of Chemistry;2023-09-11

5. UNPRINCIPLED;The Review of Symbolic Logic;2023-06-13

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