The Determinants of Hope

Abstract

Abstract This chapter seeks to identify the determinants of hope for peace to better understand hopelessness in intractable conflict and advance conflict resolution practice. Utilizing data from the Hope Map Project, a large-scale survey on hope in conflict zones, the chapter reveals some of the demographic and sociopolitical predictors of hope for peace, such as age, religiosity, and political ideology. Drawing on the Bidimensional Model of Hope, the chapter demonstrates that certain factors, such as acceptance of uncertainty, political efficacy, and threat perceptions, predict one dimension of hope but not the other. The chapter continues with a discussion about the finding that low-power group members—in this case, Palestinians—expect peace to materialize more than do the high-power Israelis. It is suggested that, in the face of the continuous struggle for justice, freedom or self-determination, low-power groups cannot afford to be pessimistic. High-power groups—in this case, Israelis—can afford to be skeptical about peace because their daily lives are more removed from the conflict’s harsh reality.