The Economy and Chancellor Approval in Germany

Abstract

Abstract Economic performance is widely considered a key determinant of government popularity. In Germany and internationally, individual-level evidence using perceived measures of the economy provides robust support for this relationship. Aggregate-level evidence using macroeconomic indicators, in contrast, is mixed. While many scholars have advanced substantive explanations, like clarity of responsibility or benchmarking, to account for heterogeneous results, this chapter investigates the role of different economic data vintages and measurement periods. Real-time data may capture the role of the media in forming economic perceptions while quarterly data that capture growth since the previous quarter makes different assumptions about time-discounting in economic assessments than do quarterly data that capture growth since the same quarter in the previous year. The authors find that the initially stronger effect of real-time data on support for the executive when growth is measured since the previous quarter converges to that of revised economic growth vintages when growth is measured over a longer period. All economic estimates show a weakening relationship between the economy and chancellor approval over time, a trend that can only partly be explained by Germany-specific developments such as changes in clarity of responsibility and reunification.