Determinants of candidate change

Abstract

Abstract This chapter examines the determinants of candidate turnover: the effects of party size, changes in party popularity, socio-economic factors, and corruption. It starts by testing the theoretical model proposed at the end of Chapter 2 using the ‘Electoral Candidates in Central and Eastern Europe’ (ECCEE) data set and finds support for the model regarding the effect of party size and our notion of feasible and non-feasible candidates. Electoral change affects candidate dropout and novelty differently: a larger change increases the dropout rate regardless of whether parties lose or gain support; higher novelty is only associated with increasing party support, while stagnant and decreasing levels of support are associated with a similar (lower) novelty. The final section of the chapter provides an example of a practical application of the model by discussing the impact of corruption on candidate turnover and testing two competing hypotheses: (1) rejuvenation, whereby increased perceptions of corruption trigger the renewal of candidate lists; and (2) renomination, whereby corruption leads to the renomination of old candidates and the stagnation of the candidate pool. The rejuvenation hypothesis receives more support, but only among governing parties.