Trade

Abstract

Abstract Adding to the challenges of military complexity across domains, military rivals may also be trading partners. States that cooperate in some areas may also compete in others. The chapter shows how low-levels of conflict can coexist, and may even be encouraged by, the deterrence of high-levels of conflict. Classic liberal perspectives expect interdependence to have a pacifying effect, and there is some empirical evidence for this view. This chapter offers a more nuanced view by linking trade interdependence to the bargaining model of war. In its simplest form, our argument is that the complexity of trade networks may account for ambiguity in the observed effects of commerce on conflict. Trade ties produce several effects, each of which has different consequences for cooperation and conflict. The chapter characterizes these effects as interdependence, asymmetry, and multipolarity and explains their interaction to alternately reduce or encourage different types of conflict.