Do People Adjust Policy Preferences to Reform Pressures?

Abstract

AbstractThis chapter uses primary panel data from Germany and Norway to analyse if perceptions of reform pressures change policy preferences over time. Panel data, of course, are often called for in research on welfare attitudes but hard to come by. Such data are valuable here as they give a handle on the direction of causation: are welfare state preferences affected by information and perceptions about reform pressures or do people adjust sustainability perceptions to preferences already held? Panel data are also attractive as they provide insights into the longevity of opinion formation processes involving sustainability perceptions. Panel waves were collected roughly one year apart and thus indicate if sustainability worries matter over longer timespans than can typically be gauged in experimental research. Most importantly, however, Chapter 8 addresses a key knowledge gap in research on the political consequences of welfare state sustainability perceptions. What we know from past research is that such perceptions can be politically important in tempering electoral punishment of governments for unpopular reforms. Less clear, however, is whether perceptions also affect underlying policy demands in a more fundamental sense.