Testing Choice-of-Venue Strategic Selection

Abstract

Abstract Chapter 6 focuses on the empirical analysis of the choice-of-venue strategic selection stage, which involves proposer states’ choices of the various peaceful resolution methods during territorial disputes. This chapter provides solid evidence, qualitative and quantitative, for the supposition that proposer states engage in strategic behavior when selecting the various methods. While attempting to settle their territorial or maritime contentions, proposer states make carefully preplanned, rational choices to seek optimal resolution outcomes. A variety of factors—mechanisms of strategic selection—influence the choice-of-venue stage of the resolution process. Controlling for a multitude of confounding factors, the analyses suggest that proposer states’ past experience with resolution methods (win-loss record) and international law’s position in the domestic legal system matter as these states strategically choose between available peaceful resolution methods. Expert interviews and real-world cases of territorial contentions shed light on patterns uncovered by quantitative analysis.