Climate Change and Spatial Conservation Planning

Abstract

Abstract Spatial conservation planning methodologies have traditionally been implemented under the assumption that species distributions change relatively slowly, unless they are directly affected by human activities. However, over the past 100 years, Earth’s climate has become warmer and precipitation regimes have changed. For example, from 1850–99 2001–05, global temperatures increased 0.76°C with warming in the past 50 years being nearly twice that for the last 100 years (IPCC 2007). Climate projections forecast even greater changes in the century to come, with impacts on biodiversity being expected to parallel changes in the climate (e.g. Thomas et al. 2004). Interactions of climate and land-use changes are only likely to compound the individual effects of climate change on biodiversity (e.g. Jetz et al. 2007; Pyke and Andelman 2007; Araújo et al. 2008). Environmental changes challenge the conventional approach to conservation planning, because they can alter the quantity, quality, and distribution of suitable areas for many species (e.g. Peters and Darling 1985; Hannah et al. 2002b). Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities might be very limited and dependent on the existence of suitable ‘stepping stones’ between protected areas. In other cases, species might persist in areas where they can retain parts of their former ranges (i.e. ‘range retention areas’); the question is whether such range retention areas and/or stepping stones for species dispersal have been captured by existing conservation areas and, if not, whether there are tools available for helping the identification of such critical areas for biodiversity conservation in a changing world.