Information Technology and Subversion

Abstract

Abstract This chapter examines how information technology changes the quality of subversion as established in the previous chapter. It shows that information technology offers new opportunities but also new challenges for the projection of power. Importantly, technological change does not overcome the subversive trilemma between speed, intensity, and control. The analysis starts by showing the subversive nature of cyber operations, which produce outcomes by exploiting and manipulating computer systems. It shows that cyber operations involve greater opportunities to expand the scale of effects compared to traditional subversion but face additional challenges in producing more intense effects against a given set of targets. Examining the specific challenges and trade-offs involved reveals that the scale advantage of cyber operations also comes with a heightened risk of control loss, however, limiting or forfeiting potential strategic gains. Meanwhile, cyber operations face steeper hurdles to produce physical effects than traditional subversion. The final section thus concludes that technological change does not fundamentally alter the quality of subversion. Rather than revolutionizing conflict, cyber operations constitute an evolution in techniques of subversion. Finally, it discusses the strategic limitations and formulates expectations for empirical analysis.