Subversion in War

Abstract

Abstract As subversion fell short, in early 2022 Russia escalated and commenced a full-scale invasion. Although force projection thus became the primary instrument of power, Russia nonetheless deployed a multitude of subversive operations—both traditional and cyber—to complement its war effort. This chapter assesses and compares their contributions toward Russia’s war goals based on the (limited) evidence that is currently available. Findings are in line with predictions and previous observations. Overall, cyber operations produced very limited strategic value, and there are clear indications of time pressure and efforts to control effects limiting intensity. Meanwhile, traditional subversion produced some significant successes, foremost the takeover of the Chernobyl nuclear ruin. These findings thus further cement the relative advantages of traditional subversion, which become especially pronounced in the context of active war, where higher-intensity effects are more desirable.