Temporal Discounting, Uncertainty, and COVID-19

Abstract

Abstract Health behaviors can be a trade-off between immediate versus longer term benefits. These longer term health benefits are often more uncertain than immediate outcomes. People are more likely to discount future events when they are uncertain. This affects decisions to violate the restrictions imposed by the lockdown to receive immediate gratification (e.g., meeting other people) while exposing others to the risk of contracting COVID-19. People who are more certain they will contract COVID-19 in the future will be more likely to adhere to social distancing behaviors than people who are not certain they will contract COVID-19. Even so, compliance with COVID-19 restrictions can wane over time. This chapter discusses the influence of time and uncertainty on protective behaviors with implications about public health policy.