The Past, the Present, and the Future of Presidential Campaigns

Abstract

Abstract This final chapter looks at the future of presidential campaigns through the presumptive lens that politics is not static and political actors respond rationally to changes in strategic incentive structures. It is not clear how the dynamic state of politics in the 2020s affects campaigns, substantively or normatively. The ability of presidential campaigns to slice and dice the electorate is at an all-time high, which may lead to narrower outreach, while a proliferation of both campaign resources and communicative modes may lead to broader outreach. The chapter suggests that both can be true at the same time: more voters will receive more narrowly tailored campaign messages. Whether or not this atomization of campaign issues and messaging is a good thing depends on the party system and the ability of the major parties to frame politics in a way that is substantive and compelling for the salient groups in American society.