Impact of institutional variables on centre performance in long-term survival after heart transplant

Abstract

Abstract OBJECTIVES The gold standard metric for centre-level performance in orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) is 1-year post-OHT survival. However, it is unclear whether centre performance at 1 year is predictive of longer-term outcomes. This study evaluated factors impacting longer-term centre-level performance in OHT. METHODS Patients who underwent OHT in the USA between 2010 and 2021 were identified using the United Network of Organ Sharing data registry. The primary outcome was 5-year survival conditional on 1-year survival following OHT. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models assessed the impact of centre-level 1-year survival rates on 5-year survival rates. Mixed-effect models were used to evaluate between-centre variability in outcomes. RESULTS Centre-level risk-adjusted 5-year mortality conditional on 1-year survival was not associated with centre-level 1-year survival rates [hazard ratio: 0.99 (0.97–1.01, P = 0.198)]. Predictors of 5-year mortality conditional on 1-year survival included black recipient race, pre-OHT serum creatinine, diabetes and donor age. In mixed-effect modelling, there was substantial variability between centres in 5-year mortality rates conditional on 1-year survival, a finding that persisted after controlling for recipient, donor and institutional factors (P < 0.001). In a crude analysis using Kaplan–Meier, the 5-year survival conditional on 1-year survival was: low volume: 86.5%, intermediate volume: 87.5%, high volume: 86.7% (log-rank P = 0.52). These measured variables only accounted for 21.4% of the between-centre variability in 5-year mortality conditional on 1-year survival. CONCLUSIONS Centre-level risk-adjusted 1-year outcomes do not correlate with outcomes in the 1- to 5-year period following OHT. Further research is needed to determine what unmeasured centre-level factors contribute to longer-term outcomes in OHT.