The Press-safety Paradox of Democracies: Regime-type Duration and Journalist Killings

Abstract

Abstract Previous research finds that journalist killings are more likely to occur in democracies rather than non-democracies. While these results provide an important first step in exploring regime type’s effect on journalist’s safety, they assume no variation in how long countries have remained a regime type. In this paper, I argue that as a country’s regime type endures, the likelihood of seeing journalists killed for their work will decrease. My theory also examines the process in different regime types and argues that this effect should hold for autocracies and anocracies, but not democracies|though democratic consolidation should decrease journalist killings there. Using an original sample of journalists killed for their professional work in countries worldwide from 1992 to 2014, I evaluate my theory using regression and survival analyses and find evidence that as regime types endure, journalist killings decrease, on average. As expected, the result holds for autocracies and anocracies but not democracies. However, the data show democratic consolidation does decrease journalist killings. The results provide a broader understanding of the working dynamics between regime type and journalists’ safety in a country’s media system.