When Do Diplomatic Protests Boomerang? Foreign Protests against US Arms Sales and Domestic Public Support in Taiwan

Abstract

Abstract Diplomatic protests convey one government's displeasure with the policies of another government. Yet, public support for their own government's policies can be influenced by the actions of others, so diplomatic protests have the potential to increase domestic support for the policy within the target country. A rally-’round-the-flag effect has been found to be associated with wars, crises, and sanctions. Here, we assess the existence of such an effect in relation to diplomatic protests by foreign governments. Using a survey experiment, we assess the impact of foreign government protests—specifically protests by China—against US arms sales to Taiwan on public support for Taiwan's government and its policies. We find that who lodges the protest, whether it is an adversary or a supporter, is more important than the language of the protest itself. We argue that diplomatic protests create a dilemma—lodging complaints about the behavior of other governments can increase public support for those very policies in the target country.