Histological Indices and Risk of Recurrence in Crohn’s Disease: A Retrospective Study of a Cohort of Patients in Endoscopic Remission

Abstract

Abstract Background Although histological healing is raising interest in ulcerative colitis to predict recurrence, its meaning in Crohn’s disease (CD) remains unknown. We aimed to study the performances of different histological indices to predict recurrence of CD patients with mucosal healing. Methods Crohn’s disease patients with mucosal healing diagnosed between 2010 and 2018 were included if there was available clinical and endoscopical data. Nancy Histological index (NHI), Geboes score (GS), Robarts Histopathology index (RHI), Global Histological Disease Activity Score (GHAS), and Inflammatory Bowel Disease—Distribution Chronicity Activity score (IBD-DCA) were independently assessed by 3 pathologists. Results Eighty-eight patients were included, of which 28 relapsed (32%) within 30.5 months. All 4 histological indices were associated with recurrence, with significant relapse risk (NHI, odds ratio [OR], 1.67; GHAS, OR, 2.33; RHI, OR, 1.19; GS, OR, 2.09; and IBD-DCA, OR, 2.14). Microscopic activity was significantly associated with relapse only with the IBD-DCA score. Predicting performances of all these scores were poor. Calibration curves indicate that the GHAS and IBD-DCA are the closest to the ideal predicted probability curve and thus could better predict recurrence than the other scores. Interobserver agreement varied from poor for GHAS (k = .39) to good for RHI (k = .68). Conclusions Histological scores are valuable indicators to predict recurrence. Histological assessment of activity seems insufficient to predict CD course with most of the score evaluated, highlighting the need for new indices or adaptation of actual scores to CD specificities.