Predicting the risk of neurocognitive decline after brain irradiation in adult patients with a primary brain tumor

Abstract

Abstract Background Deterioration of neurocognitive function in adult patients with a primary brain tumor is the most concerning side effect of radiotherapy. This study aimed to develop and evaluate normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) models using clinical and dose–volume measures for 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year Neurocognitive Decline (ND) postradiotherapy. Methods A total of 219 patients with a primary brain tumor treated with radical photon and/or proton radiotherapy (RT) between 2019 and 2022 were included. Controlled oral word association test, Hopkins verbal learning test-revised, and trail making test were used to objectively measure ND. A comprehensive set of potential clinical and dose–volume measures on several brain structures were considered for statistical modeling. Clinical, dose–volume and combined models were constructed and internally tested in terms of discrimination (area under the curve, AUC), calibration (mean absolute error, MAE), and net benefit. Results Fifty percent, 44.5%, and 42.7% of the patients developed ND at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year time points, respectively. The following predictors were included in the combined model for 6-month ND: age at radiotherapy > 56 years (OR = 5.71), overweight (OR = 0.49), obesity (OR = 0.35), chemotherapy (OR = 2.23), brain V20 Gy ≥ 20% (OR = 3.53), brainstem volume ≥ 26 cc (OR = 0.39), and hypothalamus volume ≥ 0.5 cc (OR = 0.4). Decision curve analysis showed that the combined models had the highest net benefits at 6-month (AUC = 0.79, MAE = 0.021), 1-year (AUC = 0.72, MAE = 0.027), and 2-year (AUC = 0.69, MAE = 0.038) time points. Conclusions The proposed NTCP models use easy-to-obtain predictors to identify patients at high risk of ND after brain RT. These models can potentially provide a base for RT-related decisions and post-therapy neurocognitive rehabilitation interventions.