Regional-scale surface temperature variability allows prediction of Pacific bluefin tuna recruitment

Abstract

Abstract Future sustainable management of fisheries will require resilience to the effects of environmental variability and climate change on stock productivity. In this study, we examined relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) in the region between Taiwan and the Sea of Japan, and annual recruitment of Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis: PBF) over the past 35 years. Spatial correlation maps showed that warmer SSTs south of Shikoku, in the East China Sea and in the Sea of Japan from summer to late fall were associated with above average recruitment. SST anomalies near larval and juvenile habitats were most strongly correlated with local air temperatures. Generalized Additive Models predicting annual PBF recruitment from SST fields suggested that the influence of SST on recruitment was stronger than that of spawning stock biomass. Correlations between SST and recruitment likely reflect biological processes relevant to early juvenile habitat suitability. The influence of late fall SSTs could also be a result of varying availability of age-0 fish to the troll fishery; however, the relative importance of these processes was not clear. Despite these knowledge gaps, the strong predictive power of SST on PBF recruitment can allow more proactive management of this species under varying environmental conditions.