Affiliation:
1. Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
2. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, H3A 0E8 Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Abstract
Abstract
Many studies have shown that the global fish catch can only be sustained with effective regulation that restrains overfishing. However, the persistence of weak or ineffective regulation in many parts of the world, coupled with changing technologies and additional stressors like climate change, renders the future of global catches uncertain. Here, we use a spatially resolved, bio-economic size-spectrum model to shed light on the interactive impacts of three globally important drivers over multidecadal timescales: imperfect regulation, technology-driven catchability increase, and climate change. We implement regulation as the adjustment of fishing towards a target level with some degree of effectiveness and project a range of possible trajectories for global fisheries. We find that if technological progress continues apace, increasingly effective regulation is required to prevent overfishing, akin to a Red Queen race. Climate change reduces the possible upper bound for global catches, but its economic impacts can be offset by strong regulation. Ominously, technological progress under weak regulation masks a progressive erosion of fish biomass by boosting profits and generating a temporary stabilization of global catches. Our study illustrates the large degree to which the long-term outlook of global fisheries can be improved by continually strengthening fisheries regulation, despite the negative impacts of climate change.
Funder
European Research Council
European Union’s Horizon 2020
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Subject
Ecology,Aquatic Science,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics,Oceanography
Cited by
10 articles.
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