On the probable distribution of stock-recruitment resilience of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Author:

Hsu Jhen1,Chang Yi-Jay1,Brodziak Jon2,Kai Mikihiko3,Punt André E4

Affiliation:

1. Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University , Taipei 10617 , Taiwan

2. NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center , 1845 Wasp Boulevard, Building 176, Honolulu, HI 96818 , United States

3. Fisheries Resources Institutes, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency , 2-12-4, Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohma, Kanagawa 236-8648 , Japan

4. School of Aquatic and Fishery Science, University of Washington , 1122 NE Boat Street, Seattle, WA 98195 , United States

Abstract

Abstract Determining how resilient a stock-recruitment relationship is to environmental variation is crucial for fisheries management. Steepness is a key factor characterizing the resilience of a fish stock and, hence, for establishing management reference points. This study estimates the distribution of steepness for Pacific saury using a simulation approach based on evolutionary ecology and reproductive biology, and how it changes in response to environmental change. The median estimated steepness is 0.82 (80% probable range 0.59, 0.93) based on the best available biological information, which suggests that Pacific saury can produce a relatively high proportion of unfished recruitment when depleted to 20% of unfished spawning biomass. Elasticity analysis indicates that steepness for Pacific saury is most sensitive to the survival rate of early life stages, mean body weight, growth, and length-at-maturity. Environmental change could substantially impact steepness, with unfavorable conditions related to survival rates, length-at-maturity, mean body weight, and growth potentially leading to a reduction in resilience. Understanding these impacts is crucial for the assessment and management of Pacific saury. Our numerical simulation approach provides an analytical tool applicable for calculating the steepness distribution in other small pelagic fish influenced by increases in sea surface temperature due to global warming.

Funder

National Science and Technology Council

Fishery Agency of Council of Agriculture of Taiwan

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

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