Trade-offs and uncertainties in Northeast Pacific herring fisheries: ecosystem modelling and management strategy evaluation

Abstract

Abstract Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) plays an important and multifaceted role in the Northeast Pacific as a forage fish in coastal ecosystems, target species for commercial fisheries, and culturally significant subsistence resource for coastal communities. This study comparatively evaluated herring fisheries management strategy performance relative to ecological and socioeconomic objectives. Management strategy evaluation employed a mass-balanced ecosystem operating model and accounted for parameter uncertainty, stock assessment error, and strategy implementation error through Monte Carlo resampling. Results revealed a notable trade-off between stable herring catches and high biomasses of herring and several predators. Herring biomass control point values influenced this trade-off more than harvest control rule form. All British Columbia and Alaska strategies yielded similar ecological and socioeconomic impacts relative to the unfished herring baseline. Precautionary strategies recommended for forage fish combined high ecosystem benefits and socioeconomic costs. Reducing fishing mortality fourfold within an existing strategy suggested a possible compromise solution to this trade-off. However, ecological impacts of all strategies were sensitive to operating model parameter uncertainty, stock assessment error, and strategy implementation error, with the potential for undesirable ecosystem states across all strategies. This study suggests trade-offs among management objectives should be considered in pursuing ecosystem-based fisheries management for forage fish.