Climate impacts on eastern Bering Sea foodwebs: a synthesis of new data and an assessment of the Oscillating Control Hypothesis

Abstract

Abstract Hunt, G. L., Coyle, K. O., Eisner, L. B., Farley, E. V., Heintz, R. A., Mueter, F., Napp, J. M., Overland, J. E., Ressler, P. H., Salo, S., and Stabeno, P. J. 2011. Climate impacts on eastern Bering Sea foodwebs: a synthesis of new data and an assessment of the Oscillating Control Hypothesis. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1230–1243. Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is an important component of the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem and subject to major fisheries. The Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH) predicted that recruitment of pollock year classes should be greatest in years with early ice retreat and late blooms in warm water, because more energy would flow into the pelagic (vs. benthic) community. The OCH further predicted that, with pollock population growth, there should be a shift from bottom-up to top-down regulation. New data support the predictions that in those years with early ice retreat, more primary production accrues to the pelagic compartment and that large numbers of age-0 pollock survive to summer. However, in these years, production of large crustacean zooplankton is reduced, depriving age-0 pollock of lipid-rich prey in summer and autumn. Consequently, age-0 pollock energy reserves (depot lipids) are low and predation on them is increased as fish switch to age-0 pollock from zooplankton. The result is weak recruitment of age-1 recruits the following year. A revised OCH indicates bottom-up constraints on pollock recruitment in very warm periods. Prolonged warm periods with decreased ice cover will likely cause diminished pollock recruitment and catches relative to recent values.