Dynamic rupture simulations based on interseismic locking models—taking the Suoerkuli section of the Altyn Tagh fault as an example

Abstract

SUMMARY For simulating the dynamic rupture process in earthquake scenarios, the stress distribution along the fault remains unclear owing to a lack of direct measurements. Regional stress fields are often resolved onto the fault plane to determine the stress distribution along it. To overcome this limitation, we considered different interseismic locking models to better constrain the actual stress distribution. Specifically, we took the Suoerkuli section in the middle of the Altyn Tagh fault, China, and conducted dynamic rupture simulations to obtain possible earthquake scenarios. The surface rupture length and moment magnitude obtained from the simulations were consistent with those of historical earthquakes. Compared with the traditional stress field resolution method, our approach led to better constrained fault rupture extent and distribution characteristics of regional intensity, thereby avoiding overestimations of earthquake damage. We conclude that examining regional seismic hazards and risks based on seismic dynamic rupture simulations that account for the locking ratio of the fault plane is advantageous, and should be encouraged.