Crustal velocity images of northwestern Türkiye along the North Anatolian Fault Zone from transdimensional Bayesian ambient seismic noise tomography

Abstract

SUMMARY Türkiye poses a complex crustal structure and tectonic settings owing to the northward convergence of the Arabian and African plates with respect to the Anatolian and Eurasian plates. A reliable 3-D crustal structure of the unruptured segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in the Sea of Marmara is thus of utmost importance for seismic hazard assessments considering that the megacity Istanbul—with more than 15 million habitants—is close to this seismic gap. This study provides high-resolution shear wave velocity images of northwestern Türkiye, including the NAFZ, revealed from ambient seismic noise tomography. We extract over 20 000 Green’s functions from seismic ambient noise cross-correlations and then construct group velocity perturbation maps from the measured group delays with a transdimensional Bayesian tomographic method. We further perform an S-wave velocity inversion to image depth-varying velocity structures. Our high-resolution data allowed us to image S-wave velocities down to 15 km depth and reveal weak crustal zones along the NAFZ, as indicated by low shear wave velocities. We find a low-velocity zone along the Main Marmara Fault, linked with aseismic slip and a deep creep mode. Furthermore, we identify a high-velocity anomaly associated with the unruptured section that defines the boundaries of the locked zone in the crust, which can potentially trigger a destructive earthquake in the future.