An information theoretic Bayesian uncertainty analysis of AEM systems over Menindee Lake, Australia

Abstract

SUMMARY Long-range, active-source airborne electromagnetic (AEM) systems for near-surface conductivity imaging fall into two categories: helicopter (rotary-wing) borne or fixed-wing aircraft borne. A multitude of factors such as flying height, transmitter loop area and current, source waveforms, aerodynamic stability and data stacking times contribute to the geological resolvability of the subsurface. A comprehensive comparison of the relative merits of each system considering all such factors is difficult, but test flights over well-constrained subsurface geology with downhole induction logs are extremely useful for resolution studies. However, given the non-linear nature of the electromagnetic inverse problem, handling transmitter–receiver geometries in fixed-wing aircraft is especially challenging. As a consequence of this non-linearity, inspecting the closeness of downhole conductivities to deterministic inversion results is not sufficient for studying resolvability. A more comprehensive picture is provided by examining the variation in probability mass of the depth-wise Bayesian posterior conductivity distributions for each kind of AEM system within an information theoretic framework. For this purpose, probabilistic inversions of data must be carried out. Each acquiring system should fly over the same geology, survey noise levels must be measured and the same prior probabilities on conductivity must be used. With both synthetic models as well as real data from over the Menindee calibration range in New South Wales, Australia, we shed new light on the matter of AEM inverse model uncertainty. We do this using two information theoretic attributes derived from different Kullback–Leibler divergences—Bayesian information gain, and a strictly proper scoring rule, to assess posterior probabilities estimated by a novel Bayesian inversion scheme. The inversion marginalizes fixed-wing geometry attributes as generic nuisance parameters during Markov chain sampling. This is the first time-domain AEM study we know of, that compares nuisance marginalized subsurface posterior conductivities from a fixed-wing system, with rotary-wing derived posterior conductivities. We also compare field results with induction log data where available. Finally, we estimate the information gain in each case via a covariate shift adaptation technique that has not been used before in geophysical work. Our findings have useful implications in AEM system selection, as well as in the design of better deterministic AEM inversion algorithms.