Expert Opinions on the Future Production of Five Manufactured Wood Products in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract

Abstract A panel of 21 experts provided their opinions on future production levels of manufactured wood products in the Pacific Northwest. Their projections covered a 50-year span for five groups of products: softwood lumber, plywood and panels, woodpulp, export chips, and log exports. Explanations for three projection levels—low, median, and high—are described for each product group and then converted into an aggregated estimate of total roundwood timber consumption forecasts. Aggregate totals reveal that over the next 50 years, only the high-level scenario indicates a return to the historic peak production levels of the 1970s. No significant change in the relative product group proportions of aggregate roundwood consumption is expected under any of the three projection levels. This means that lumber and woodpulp, presently constituting two-thirds of total roundwood consumption, are expected to remain as the leading manufactured wood products during the next 50 years. West. J. Appl. For. 4(3):92-98, July 1989