A Dynamic Model for Estimating the Retention Duration of Neutralizing Antibody Titers After Vaccination in a COVID-19 Convalescent Population

Author:

Hsu Fang-Chi12,Pan Li-Chern3,Huang Yen-Fang14,Yang Chin-Hui56,Shiu Ming-Neng178,Lin Hsiu-Ju910

Affiliation:

1. Research Center for Epidemic Prevention and One Health, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University , Taipei , Taiwan

2. Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School , Boston, Massachusetts , USA

3. Graduate Institute of Biomedical Optomechatronics, Taipei Medical University , Taipei , Taiwan

4. Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Taiwan Centers for Disease Control , Taipei , Taiwan

5. Division of Acute Infectious Diseases, Taiwan Centers for Disease Control , Taipei , Taiwan

6. Department of Infectious Disease, Taipei Medical University Hospital , Taipei , Taiwan

7. Institute of Health and Welfare Policy, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University , Taipei , Taiwan

8. Department of Pharmacy, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University , Taipei , Taiwan

9. School of Social Work, University of Connecticut , Storrs, Connecticut , USA

10. Connecticut Department of Mental Health and Addiction Services , Hartford, Connecticut , USA

Abstract

Abstract We measured neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a cohort of 235 convalescent patients (representing 384 analytic samples). They were followed for up to 588 days after the first report of onset in Taiwan. A proposed Bayesian approach was used to estimate nAb dynamics in patients postvaccination. This model revealed that the titer reached its peak (1819.70 IU/mL) by 161 days postvaccination and decreased to 154.18 IU/mL by day 360. Thus, the nAb titers declined in 6 months after vaccination. Protection, against variant B.1.1.529 (ie, Omicron) may only occur during the peak period.

Funder

National Science and Technology Council

Taiwan

Ministry of Education

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Infectious Diseases,Immunology and Allergy

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