Transmission Dynamics and Rare Clustered Transmission Within an Urban University Population Before Widespread Vaccination

Abstract

Abstract Background Universities returned to in-person learning in 2021 while SARS-CoV-2 spread remained high. At the time, it was not clear whether in-person learning would be a source of disease spread. Methods We combined surveillance testing, universal contact tracing, and viral genome sequencing to quantify introductions and identify likely on-campus spread. Results Ninety-one percent of viral genotypes occurred once, indicating no follow-on transmission. Less than 5% of introductions resulted in >3 cases, with 2 notable exceptions of 40 and 47 cases. Both partially overlapped with outbreaks defined by contact tracing. In both cases, viral genomics eliminated over half the epidemiologically linked cases but added an equivalent or greater number of individuals to the transmission cluster. Conclusions Public health interventions prevented within-university transmission for most SARS-CoV-2 introductions, with only 2 major outbreaks being identified January to May 2021. The genetically linked cases overlap with outbreaks identified by contact tracing; however, they persisted in the university population for fewer days and rounds of transmission than estimated via contact tracing. This underscores the effectiveness of test-trace-isolate strategies in controlling undetected spread of emerging respiratory infectious diseases. These approaches limit follow-on transmission in both outside-in and internal transmission conditions.