Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness by A(H3N2) Phylogenetic Subcluster and Prior Vaccination History: 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 Epidemics in Canada

Abstract

Abstract Background The influenza A(H3N2) vaccine was updated from clade 3C.3a in 2015–2016 to 3C.2a for 2016–2017 and 2017–2018. Circulating 3C.2a viruses showed considerable hemagglutinin glycoprotein diversification and the egg-adapted vaccine also bore mutations. Methods Vaccine effectiveness (VE) in 2016–2017 and 2017–2018 was assessed by test-negative design, explored by A(H3N2) phylogenetic subcluster and prior season’s vaccination history. Results In 2016–2017, A(H3N2) VE was 36% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18%–50%), comparable with (43%; 95% CI, 24%–58%) or without (33%; 95% CI, −21% to 62%) prior season’s vaccination. In 2017–2018, VE was 14% (95% CI, −8% to 31%), lower with (9%; 95% CI, −18% to 30%) versus without (45%; 95% CI, −7% to 71%) prior season’s vaccination. In 2016–2017, VE against predominant clade 3C.2a1 viruses was 33% (95% CI, 11%–50%): 18% (95% CI, −40% to 52%) for 3C.2a1a defined by a pivotal T135K loss of glycosylation; 60% (95% CI, 19%–81%) for 3C.2a1b (without T135K); and 31% (95% CI, 2%–51%) for other 3C.2a1 variants (with/without T135K). VE against 3C.2a2 viruses was 45% (95% CI, 2%–70%) in 2016–2017 but 15% (95% CI, −7% to 33%) in 2017–2018 when 3C.2a2 predominated. VE against 3C.2a1b in 2017–2018 was 37% (95% CI, −57% to 75%), lower at 12% (95% CI, −129% to 67%) for a new 3C.2a1b subcluster (n = 28) also bearing T135K. Conclusions Exploring VE by phylogenetic subcluster and prior vaccination history reveals informative heterogeneity. Pivotal mutations affecting glycosylation sites, and repeat vaccination using unchanged antigen, may reduce VE.