Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design

Author:

Onozuka Daisuke1ORCID,Tanoue Yuta23,Nomura Shuhei34,Kawashima Takayuki35,Yoneoka Daisuke346ORCID,Eguchi Akifumi37,Ng Chris Fook Sheng8ORCID,Matsuura Kentaro910,Shi Shoi1112,Makiyama Koji10,Uryu Shinya13,Kawamura Yumi14,Takayanagi Shinichi10,Gilmour Stuart6ORCID,Hayashi Takehiko I15,Miyata Hiroaki3,Sera Francesco16ORCID,Sunagawa Tomimasa17,Takahashi Takuri17,Tsuchihashi Yuuki17,Kobayashi Yusuke17,Arima Yuzo17,Kanou Kazuhiko17,Suzuki Motoi17,Hashizume Masahiro4

Affiliation:

1. Department of Medical Informatics and Clinical Epidemiology, Graduate School of Medical Science, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan

2. Institute for Business and Finance, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan

3. Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan

4. Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

5. Department of Mathematical and Computing Science, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan

6. Graduate School of Public Health, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan

7. Department of Sustainable Health Science, Center for Preventive Medical Sciences, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan

8. School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan

9. Department of Management Science, Graduate School of Engineering, Tokyo University of Science, Tokyo, Japan

10. HOXO-M Inc., Tokyo, Japan

11. Department of Systems Pharmacology, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

12. Laboratory for Synthetic Biology, RIKEN Center for Biosystems Dynamics Research, Osaka, Japan

13. Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tokyo, Japan

14. RIKEN Center for Sustainable Resource Science, Saitama, Japan

15. Center for Health and Environmental Risk Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki, Japan

16. Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications ‘G. Parenti’, University of Florence, Florence, Italy

17. Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. Methods Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015–December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. Results In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of −20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): −38 367 to −5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of −1.7% (95% eCI: −3.1 to −0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70–79 years. Conclusions All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.

Funder

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

General Medicine,Epidemiology

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3