Characterizing a two-pronged epidemic in Mexico of non-communicable diseases and SARS-Cov-2: factors associated with increased case-fatality rates

Abstract

Abstract Background People with a previous diagnosis of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are more likely to develop serious forms of COVID-19 or die. Mexico is the country with the fourth highest fatality rate from SARS-Cov-2, with high mortality in younger adults. Objectives To describe and characterize the association of NCDs with the case-fatality rate (CFR) adjusted by age and sex in Mexican adults with a positive diagnosis for SARS-Cov-2. Methods We studied Mexican adults aged ≥20 years who tested positive for SARS-Cov-2 during the period from 28 February to 31 July 2020. The CFR was calculated and associations with history of NCDs (number of diseases and combinations), severity indicators and type of institution that treated the patient were explored. The relative risk (RR) of death was estimated using Poisson models and CFR was adjusted using logistic models. Results We analysed 406 966 SARS-Cov-2-positive adults. The CFR was 11.2% (13.7% in men and 8.4% in women). The CFR was positively associated with age and number of NCDs (p trend <0.001). The number of NCDs increased the risk of death in younger adults when they presented three or more NCDs compared with those who did not have any NCDs [RR, 46.6; 95% confidence interval (CI), 28.2, 76.9 for women; RR, 16.5; 95% CI, 9.9, 27.3 for men]. Lastly, there was great heterogeneity in the CFR by institution, from 4.6% in private institutions to 18.9% in public institutions. Conclusion In younger adults, higher CFRs were associated with the total number of NCDs and some combinations of type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cardiovascular disease.