Production decline analysis of shale gas based on a probability density distribution function

Abstract

Abstract Production decline analysis is a simple and efficient method to forecast production dynamics of shale gas. The traditional Arps decline model is also widely used in the production decline analysis of shale gas, but an obvious error is often generated. Based on the Weibull and χ2 probability density distribution function, the monotonic decreasing production prediction equations of shale gas are established. It is deduced that recently, the widely used Duong model is essentially a Weibull probability density distribution model. Decline analysis results of production data from actual shale gas well and numerical simulations indicate that the fitting results of the Weibull (Duong) model and χ2 distribution model are better than the Arps model whose deviation of early data is large. For a shale gas reservoir with very low permeability, pressure conformance area is small and it is obviously influenced by fractures. Early shale gas production rate mainly contributed to by fractures declines quickly and the later production rate mainly contributed to by the matrix declines slowly over time. The production decline curve has obvious long-tail distribution characteristics and it is a better fit to the data with a χ2 distribution model. As for the increase of permeability, the fitting accuracy of the Weibull (Duong) model gradually becomes better than the χ2 distribution model. Research results provide theoretical guidance for choosing a reasonable production decline model of a shale gas reservoir with a different permeability.