Has the prevalence of overweight, obesity and central obesity levelled off in the United States? Trends, patterns, disparities, and future projections for the obesity epidemic

Abstract

Abstract Background Obesity (OB) is a serious epidemic in the United States. Methods We examined OB patterns and time trends across socio-economic and geographic parameters and projected the future situation. Large national databases were used. Overweight (OW), OB and severe obesity (SOB) were defined using body mass index cut-points/percentiles; central obesity (CO), waist circumference cut-point in adults and waist:height ratio cutoff in youth. Various meta-regression analysis models were fit for projection analyses. Results OB prevalence had consistently risen since 1999 and considerable differences existed across groups and regions. Among adults, men’s OB (33.7%) and OW (71.6%) levelled off in 2009–2012, resuming the increase to 38.0 and 74.7% in 2015–2016, respectively. Women showed an uninterrupted increase in OB/OW prevalence since 1999, reaching 41.5% (OB) and 68.9% (OW) in 2015–2016. SOB levelled off in 2013–2016 (men: 5.5–5.6%; women: 9.7–9.5%), after annual increases of 0.2% between 1999 and 2012. Non-Hispanic Blacks had the highest prevalence in women’s OB/SOB and men’s SOB. OB prevalence in boys rose continuously to 20.6% and SOB to 7.5% in 2015–2016, but not in girls. By 2030, most Americans will be OB/OW and nearly 50% of adults OB, whereas ∼33% of children aged 6–11 and ∼50% of adolescents aged 12–19 will be OB/OW. Since 1999, CO has risen steadily, and by 2030 is projected to reach 55.6% in men, 80.0% in women, 47.6% among girls and 38.9% among boys. Regional differences exist in adult OB prevalence (2011–2016) and across ethnicities; South (32.0%) and Midwest (31.4%) had the highest rates. Conclusions US obesity prevalence has been rising, despite a temporary pause in 2009–2012. Wide disparities across groups and geographical regions persist. Effective, sustainable, culturally-tailored interventions are needed.