Climatic comparison of the gray wolf (Canis lupus) subspecies in North America using niche-based distribution models and its implications for conservation programs

Abstract

Abstract The gray wolf, Canis lupus, once inhabited much of the northern hemisphere worldwide; however, persecution drove its populations almost to extinction. In North America, diverse conservation programs have been implemented in the last decades to recover its populations in the wild, many of them guided by the historical distribution of the gray wolf subspecies. Over time, several authors have proposed different subspecies classifications. Nevertheless, most of them are mutually inconsistent regarding the number and distribution of subspecies, creating controversy when implementing conservation programs. This study used niche-based distribution models and cluster analysis to explore the bioclimatic profiles of C. lupus across North America and compare them with different subspecies classifications to identify environmental correlatives that support the proposed designations. Our cluster analysis results indicate that the optimal number of climatic groups was five, designated as Northern, Eastern, Western, Coastal, and Southern groups, with transitional overlap boundaries located at their peripheries, indicating climatic gradients between them and supporting the idea of intergrading zones. The geographic ranges of these groups mismatched to a different extent with all subspecies delimitations. In general, the boundaries of putative subspecies did not match the climatic patterns of North America. Our results may contribute to the recovery programs underway for this carnivore by identifying suitable areas for the release of individuals from specific lineages. New approaches to characterizing the intraspecific variation of the gray wolf should include all evidence available, including genetic, morphological, and ecological information.